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3661:TWSEAlchip Technologies Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time

NT$4,590.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Alchip Technologies is trading above its short‑term moving average while remaining below its longer‑term averages, suggesting an underlying bullish bias despite a recent bearish MACD crossover and a tapering volume trend. The stock exhibits high volatility and a beta above the market, indicating price swings that could challenge short‑term traders, yet the company’s strong cash position, low leverage and a modest dividend payout support a sustainable income profile.
Fundamentally, the firm benefits from robust operating margins, a significant forward earnings uplift and strategic initiatives such as new leadership appointments and 2nm ASIC development that target high‑growth AI and HPC markets. These catalysts, combined with a forward valuation that appears more reasonable than the trailing multiple, point to a growth‑oriented investment case for medium to long horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • bearish MACD histogram
  • declining volume trend
  • price proximity to recent support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • forward earnings acceleration
  • AI and HPC demand tailwinds
  • strategic 2nm ASIC roadmap

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • strong cash generation and low debt
  • sustainable dividend policy
  • positioning in high‑growth semiconductor niche

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-60.10%
Profit Margin22.59%
P/E Ratio67.8
ROE13.12%
ROA5.23%
Debt/Equity0.76
P/B Ratio8.7
Op. Cash FlowNT$1.4B
Free Cash FlowNT$-800079488
Industry P/E38.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI58.2
SupportNT$3,570.00
ResistanceNT$5,640.00
MA 20NT$4,415.50
MA 50NT$3,624.50
MA 200NT$3,538.33
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.48

Valuation

Fair ValueNT$638.66
Target PriceNT$5,733.21
Upside/Downside24.91%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.80%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.24
Volatility70.32%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.