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316:HKEXOrient Overseas (International) Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-20 - not real-time

¥1,369.00

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ochi Holdings is trading at ¥1,369, which sits below its 20‑day SMA of ¥1,376, the 50‑day SMA of ¥1,399, and the 200‑day SMA of ¥1,443, underscoring a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI of 43.5 suggests the stock is not yet oversold, while the MACD line, though still negative, is above its signal line, giving a bullish histogram hint of a possible near‑term reversal. Volume is on a decreasing trend and the 30‑day volatility of roughly 15.6% combined with an ultra‑low beta of 0.02 point to a relatively stable price environment despite the bearish technical backdrop. Support at ¥1,350 and resistance at ¥1,418 frame the immediate price action, with the current price hovering just above the support zone. On the fundamentals side, the stock appears dramatically undervalued: the DCF‑derived fair value of ¥4,763 is more than three times the market price, while a PE of 13.6 and PB of 0.73 signal a cheap valuation relative to earnings and book. The dividend yield of 4.09% and a payout ratio near 54% are supported by strong free cash flow of ¥3.37 bn and a comfortable cash‑to‑debt profile (cash ¥17.0 bn vs debt ¥6.1 bn). Overall, the company blends a solid dividend foundation with a sizable valuation gap, making it attractive for investors willing to navigate its near‑term technical weakness.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all major moving averages indicating bearish bias
  • Decreasing volume and modest volatility suggest limited upward momentum
  • Proximity to support level at ¥1,350 provides downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • Attractive dividend yield backed by solid free cash flow
  • Potential bounce toward resistance at ¥1,418 and beyond

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained undervaluation with low beta offering defensive characteristics
  • Dividend sustainability supported by strong cash generation and moderate leverage
  • Long‑term upside potential if market re‑prices earnings and asset base

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.30%
Profit Margin1.09%
P/E Ratio13.6
ROE5.44%
ROA1.47%
Debt/Equity24.82
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow¥4.5B
Free Cash Flow¥3.4B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.5
Support¥1,350.00
Resistance¥1,418.00
MA 20¥1,375.80
MA 50¥1,398.90
MA 200¥1,442.67
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value¥4,763.43
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.02
Volatility15.65%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.