300255:SZSEHebei Changshan Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time
CN¥40.54
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading close to its short‑term moving average with a neutral trend direction, while the MACD has turned bearish and the RSI sits in the mid‑range, suggesting limited upside momentum. Volatility is high over the past month, yet the beta is very low, indicating the price swings are largely company‑specific rather than market‑driven. Valuation metrics are stretched, with a price‑to‑book multiple far above industry norms and a discounted cash‑flow estimate that is a fraction of the current market price.
Fundamental outlook: The company reports negative earnings and profit margins, a heavy debt load relative to equity, and a negative return on equity, all of which undermine its financial stability. Cash flow is negative from operations but free cash flow appears positive due to working‑capital dynamics, while dividend payout is nonexistent. The combination of high drawdown potential, sector‑specific regulatory exposure, and a wide gap between fair value and market price points to considerable downside risk.
Fundamental outlook: The company reports negative earnings and profit margins, a heavy debt load relative to equity, and a negative return on equity, all of which undermine its financial stability. Cash flow is negative from operations but free cash flow appears positive due to working‑capital dynamics, while dividend payout is nonexistent. The combination of high drawdown potential, sector‑specific regulatory exposure, and a wide gap between fair value and market price points to considerable downside risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD signal
- Price significantly above fair value
- Negative earnings and margins
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High valuation pressure persists
- Debt burden remains elevated
- Volatility may create buying opportunities
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained overvaluation relative to fundamentals
- Continued regulatory and sector risk
- Lack of dividend and cash‑flow generation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-1.00%
Profit Margin-40.78%
ROE-26.97%
ROA-3.27%
Debt/Equity199.18
P/B Ratio30.8
Op. Cash FlowCN¥-27101284
Free Cash FlowCN¥332.5M
Industry P/E27.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI42.5
SupportCN¥38.92
ResistanceCN¥47.00
MA 20CN¥42.33
MA 50CN¥41.50
MA 200CN¥50.00
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.55
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥2.37
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.18
Volatility53.78%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.