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300133:SZSEZhejiang Huace Film & TV Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time

CN¥7.40

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

The stock is trading at CNY 7.4, well below its 20‑day SMA of 8.72 and also under the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, while the MACD line sits bearishly at –0.36 and the RSI hovers around 36, suggesting limited upside momentum. Volume is on a decreasing trend and the 30‑day volatility is extremely high at over 70%, though the beta of 0.25 indicates low market‑wide systematic risk.
Fundamentally, the company appears severely overvalued with a trailing P/E of 82 versus an industry average of 17, and a DCF‑derived fair value of only about CNY 1.38. Revenue has contracted by roughly 33% year‑over‑year, free cash flow is deeply negative, and debt‑to‑equity is elevated at 27, raising concerns about cash‑flow sustainability. The modest 0.15% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 14% are unlikely to be maintained under current conditions, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (MACD, SMA breach)
  • Extreme price volatility
  • Overvaluation relative to DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Continued revenue decline and negative free cash flow
  • High debt burden
  • Uncertain regulatory environment for media content

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Potential for restructuring or strategic partnerships
  • Low systematic beta offering some defensive characteristics
  • Possibility of improved cash‑flow generation if turnaround succeeds

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-32.90%
Profit Margin6.84%
P/E Ratio82.2
ROE2.98%
ROA0.96%
Debt/Equity27.37
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowCN¥60.9M
Free Cash FlowCN¥-905776320
Industry P/E16.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI36.6
SupportCN¥7.03
ResistanceCN¥10.92
MA 20CN¥8.72
MA 50CN¥8.29
MA 200CN¥8.32
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.2

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥1.38
Target PriceCN¥8.73
Upside/Downside18.02%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.15%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.25
Volatility73.67%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.