300133:SZSEZhejiang Huace Film & TV Co., Ltd. Class A Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time
CN¥7.40
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
The stock is trading at CNY 7.4, well below its 20‑day SMA of 8.72 and also under the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, while the MACD line sits bearishly at –0.36 and the RSI hovers around 36, suggesting limited upside momentum. Volume is on a decreasing trend and the 30‑day volatility is extremely high at over 70%, though the beta of 0.25 indicates low market‑wide systematic risk.
Fundamentally, the company appears severely overvalued with a trailing P/E of 82 versus an industry average of 17, and a DCF‑derived fair value of only about CNY 1.38. Revenue has contracted by roughly 33% year‑over‑year, free cash flow is deeply negative, and debt‑to‑equity is elevated at 27, raising concerns about cash‑flow sustainability. The modest 0.15% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 14% are unlikely to be maintained under current conditions, reinforcing a cautious outlook.
Fundamentally, the company appears severely overvalued with a trailing P/E of 82 versus an industry average of 17, and a DCF‑derived fair value of only about CNY 1.38. Revenue has contracted by roughly 33% year‑over‑year, free cash flow is deeply negative, and debt‑to‑equity is elevated at 27, raising concerns about cash‑flow sustainability. The modest 0.15% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 14% are unlikely to be maintained under current conditions, reinforcing a cautious outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (MACD, SMA breach)
- Extreme price volatility
- Overvaluation relative to DCF
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Continued revenue decline and negative free cash flow
- High debt burden
- Uncertain regulatory environment for media content
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Potential for restructuring or strategic partnerships
- Low systematic beta offering some defensive characteristics
- Possibility of improved cash‑flow generation if turnaround succeeds
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-32.90%
Profit Margin6.84%
P/E Ratio82.2
ROE2.98%
ROA0.96%
Debt/Equity27.37
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowCN¥60.9M
Free Cash FlowCN¥-905776320
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI36.6
SupportCN¥7.03
ResistanceCN¥10.92
MA 20CN¥8.72
MA 50CN¥8.29
MA 200CN¥8.32
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.2
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥1.38
Target PriceCN¥8.73
Upside/Downside18.02%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.15%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.25
Volatility73.67%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.