2:HKEXCrude Oil Apr 26 analysis
Data as of Oct 20, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- $98.18
- Risk: high
- 9/10High risk
Summary
The moving-average structure behind Crude Oil Dec 26 is bullish at $98.18, with short-term averages leading the long-term ones. It has gained 5.5% over the past 30 days. Momentum indicators put RSI at 56.8 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. The recent range runs from support at $86.86 up to resistance at $104.18.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 45.3%, a beta of -1.65 and a maximum drawdown of 39.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is buy while the long-term read is hold, conviction 2 out of 10.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 9 — high. With 30-day volatility of 45.3%, a beta of -1.65 and a maximum drawdown of 39.3%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is buy while the long-term read is hold, conviction 2 out of 10.
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence5/105 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 84.63
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence4/104 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 84.63
- 30-day volatility of 45.3%
Long term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence2/102 out of 10
Key factors
- 30-day volatility of 45.3%
- Beta of -1.65 versus the benchmark
- Maximum drawdown of 39.3%
Key metrics
Technical analysis
TrendBullish
RSI56.8
Support$86.86
Resistance$104.18
MA 20$93.51
MA 50$91.81
MA 200$84.63
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.52
Valuation
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk assessment
Beta-1.65
Volatility45.27%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.