2801:TWSEChang Hwa Commercial Bank, Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-19 - not real-time
NT$22.85
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading at TWD 22.85, comfortably above the 20‑day SMA (21.40) and 50‑day SMA (21.13) while still above the 200‑day SMA (20.49), confirming a bullish trend. Momentum is strong with a MACD histogram of +0.19 (bullish signal) but the RSI of 75 signals the market may be overbought. The price sits just below the identified resistance at TWD 23.15 and above the support at TWD 20.05, with volume trending upward, suggesting continued buying interest.
Fundamental outlook: Valuation appears reasonable – the trailing P/E of 15.2 is below the industry average of 16.9, and the P/B of 1.19 is close to book value. A dividend yield of 2.19% and a modest payout ratio of 33% point to dividend sustainability. However, operating cash flow is negative (‑TWD 253 bn) and net debt is modestly positive, flagging liquidity concerns despite a low beta of 0.28 and moderate 30‑day volatility of 22%.
Fundamental outlook: Valuation appears reasonable – the trailing P/E of 15.2 is below the industry average of 16.9, and the P/B of 1.19 is close to book value. A dividend yield of 2.19% and a modest payout ratio of 33% point to dividend sustainability. However, operating cash flow is negative (‑TWD 253 bn) and net debt is modestly positive, flagging liquidity concerns despite a low beta of 0.28 and moderate 30‑day volatility of 22%.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- RSI in overbought territory
- Price near short‑term resistance
- Strong dividend yield supporting demand
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- PE below industry average indicating relative undervaluation
- Low beta and stable volatility reducing market risk
- Sustainable dividend payout enhancing total return
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Consistent dividend policy
- Moderate revenue growth (14%) balanced by cash‑flow weakness
- Regulatory environment of Taiwanese banking sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth14.00%
Profit Margin43.06%
P/E Ratio15.2
ROE8.73%
ROA0.56%
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash FlowNT$-253217013760
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI75.0
SupportNT$20.05
ResistanceNT$23.15
MA 20NT$21.40
MA 50NT$21.13
MA 200NT$20.49
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.19%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.28
Volatility22.30%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.