2502:TSEAsahi Group Holdings Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time
HK$0.64
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Technical momentum is currently in the driver’s seat. The price sits comfortably above the short‑term and long‑term moving averages, the MACD histogram is positive and the volume trend is rising, all pointing to a bullish short‑term bias. However, the RSI is elevated and the market price exceeds the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting that the rally may be stretched.
Fundamentally the company is under pressure: margins are thin to negative, earnings per share are in the red, cash conversion is weak and the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Volatility is extreme and the beta is very low, indicating that price swings are driven more by company‑specific news than broader market moves. Investors should weigh the strong technical set‑up against the fragile financial health and overvalued pricing before taking a position.
Fundamentally the company is under pressure: margins are thin to negative, earnings per share are in the red, cash conversion is weak and the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Volatility is extreme and the beta is very low, indicating that price swings are driven more by company‑specific news than broader market moves. Investors should weigh the strong technical set‑up against the fragile financial health and overvalued pricing before taking a position.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical alignment (price above SMAs, positive MACD)
- Elevated RSI indicating possible near‑term overbought condition
- Weak earnings and negative profit margins
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental deficits (negative EPS, thin margins)
- Price above DCF fair value, implying overvaluation
- High volatility and limited liquidity
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustained earnings pressure and high debt load
- Sector exposure to commodity cycles and regulatory changes
- Geopolitical and currency headwinds affecting Chinese exporters
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.00%
Profit Margin-2.26%
ROE-3.90%
ROA-1.80%
Debt/Equity34.90
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash FlowHK$35.6M
Free Cash FlowHK$-8702875
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI66.8
SupportHK$0.40
ResistanceHK$0.84
MA 20HK$0.48
MA 50HK$0.45
MA 200HK$0.44
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.82
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$0.36
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.14
Volatility132.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.