We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

2502:TSEAsahi Group Holdings Ltd Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

HK$0.64

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Technical momentum is currently in the driver’s seat. The price sits comfortably above the short‑term and long‑term moving averages, the MACD histogram is positive and the volume trend is rising, all pointing to a bullish short‑term bias. However, the RSI is elevated and the market price exceeds the discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting that the rally may be stretched.
Fundamentally the company is under pressure: margins are thin to negative, earnings per share are in the red, cash conversion is weak and the balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Volatility is extreme and the beta is very low, indicating that price swings are driven more by company‑specific news than broader market moves. Investors should weigh the strong technical set‑up against the fragile financial health and overvalued pricing before taking a position.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical alignment (price above SMAs, positive MACD)
  • Elevated RSI indicating possible near‑term overbought condition
  • Weak earnings and negative profit margins

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental deficits (negative EPS, thin margins)
  • Price above DCF fair value, implying overvaluation
  • High volatility and limited liquidity

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained earnings pressure and high debt load
  • Sector exposure to commodity cycles and regulatory changes
  • Geopolitical and currency headwinds affecting Chinese exporters

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-10.00%
Profit Margin-2.26%
ROE-3.90%
ROA-1.80%
Debt/Equity34.90
P/B Ratio0.6
Op. Cash FlowHK$35.6M
Free Cash FlowHK$-8702875

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI66.8
SupportHK$0.40
ResistanceHK$0.84
MA 20HK$0.48
MA 50HK$0.45
MA 200HK$0.44
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.82

Valuation

Fair ValueHK$0.36
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.14
Volatility132.64%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.