2319:HKEXChina Mengniu Dairy Company Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-13 - not real-time
HK$18.36
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited is priced at HKD 18.36 and its moving averages line up in bullish order, the shorter sitting above the longer. It has lost 2.9% over the past 30 days. Relative strength is 51.5 — neutral — and the MACD signal is bearish. The recent range runs from support at HKD 17.51 up to resistance at HKD 19.30.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 39.9, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Consensus targets land 26.9% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 7.8% on a 2.2% profit margin. The 3.25% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 3 — low. With 30-day volatility of 21.5%, a beta of -0.18 and a maximum drawdown of 14.9%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: buy near-term but hold on a long view, at 3/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 39.9, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Consensus targets land 26.9% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 7.8% on a 2.2% profit margin. The 3.25% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 3 — low. With 30-day volatility of 21.5%, a beta of -0.18 and a maximum drawdown of 14.9%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: buy near-term but hold on a long view, at 3/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
Top Market Events
Investing15dEarnings call transcript: China Mengniu Dairy posts strong H1 2026 growthChina Mengniu also said it will...Detailed price information for China Mengniu Dairy CO CIADF from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 16.69
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Dividend yield of 3.25% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Trading above the 200-day average of 16.69
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Dividend yield of 3.25% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Analyst targets imply +26.9% versus the current price
- P/E ratio of 39.9
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth7.80%
Profit Margin2.19%
P/E Ratio39.9
ROE4.13%
ROA3.10%
Debt/Equity64.94
P/B Ratio1.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI51.5
SupportHK$17.51
ResistanceHK$19.30
MA 20HK$18.34
MA 50HK$18.26
MA 200HK$16.69
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.14
Valuation
Target PriceHK$23.29
Upside/Downside26.85%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.25%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.18
Volatility21.53%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.