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2229:TSECALBEE, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

¥3,075.00

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Calbee, Inc. is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, indicating a short‑term bullish bias, yet the MACD histogram remains negative and the RSI hovers around the neutral zone, suggesting limited upside momentum. The stock’s beta is virtually flat, pointing to minimal market‑wide price swings, while 30‑day volatility sits in the moderate range and trading volume is on the rise, reinforcing the current trend.
However, the discounted cash‑flow estimate is dramatically lower than the market price, creating a sizable valuation gap. Combined with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and modest revenue growth, the fundamentals appear stretched, though the 2%+ dividend yield and defensive consumer‑staples positioning provide a cushion. Investors should weigh the overvaluation against the stable cash flows and dividend sustainability before taking action.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above short‑term SMAs but MACD bearish divergence
  • Neutral RSI and increasing volume
  • Support level near 3000 JPY

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Defensive consumer‑staples sector with stable dividend
  • Valuation gap remains wide
  • Debt level higher than peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value far below current price
  • Limited revenue growth and high leverage
  • Potential for price correction as overvaluation persists

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.90%
P/E Ratio22.6
Debt/Equity24.05
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow¥30.9B
Free Cash Flow¥7.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI48.7
Support¥3,008.00
Resistance¥3,194.00
MA 20¥3,088.40
MA 50¥3,056.81
MA 200¥2,884.18
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index79.23

Valuation

Fair Value¥832.85
Target Price¥3,000.00
Upside/Downside-2.44%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.15%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.06
Volatility13.42%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.