2229:TSECALBEE, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
¥3,075.00
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Calbee, Inc. is trading above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, indicating a short‑term bullish bias, yet the MACD histogram remains negative and the RSI hovers around the neutral zone, suggesting limited upside momentum. The stock’s beta is virtually flat, pointing to minimal market‑wide price swings, while 30‑day volatility sits in the moderate range and trading volume is on the rise, reinforcing the current trend.
However, the discounted cash‑flow estimate is dramatically lower than the market price, creating a sizable valuation gap. Combined with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and modest revenue growth, the fundamentals appear stretched, though the 2%+ dividend yield and defensive consumer‑staples positioning provide a cushion. Investors should weigh the overvaluation against the stable cash flows and dividend sustainability before taking action.
However, the discounted cash‑flow estimate is dramatically lower than the market price, creating a sizable valuation gap. Combined with a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and modest revenue growth, the fundamentals appear stretched, though the 2%+ dividend yield and defensive consumer‑staples positioning provide a cushion. Investors should weigh the overvaluation against the stable cash flows and dividend sustainability before taking action.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above short‑term SMAs but MACD bearish divergence
- Neutral RSI and increasing volume
- Support level near 3000 JPY
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Defensive consumer‑staples sector with stable dividend
- Valuation gap remains wide
- Debt level higher than peers
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value far below current price
- Limited revenue growth and high leverage
- Potential for price correction as overvaluation persists
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.90%
P/E Ratio22.6
Debt/Equity24.05
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow¥30.9B
Free Cash Flow¥7.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.7
Support¥3,008.00
Resistance¥3,194.00
MA 20¥3,088.40
MA 50¥3,056.81
MA 200¥2,884.18
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index79.23
Valuation
Fair Value¥832.85
Target Price¥3,000.00
Upside/Downside-2.44%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.15%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.06
Volatility13.42%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.