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200539:SZSEGuangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

HK$2.23

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Guangdong Electric Power Development is trading in a clear bullish framework, with the 20‑day SMA (2.19) sitting above both the 50‑day (2.13) and 200‑day (1.96) averages and the RSI at a supportive 58.9. However, the MACD histogram has turned negative and volume is on a downtrend, suggesting short‑term pressure as the price (2.23) approaches the near‑term resistance of 2.30. On the valuation side, the stock looks markedly cheap – a trailing PE of 12.4 versus the industry average of 20.7, a PB of 0.43 and a price‑to‑sales of 0.22 – providing a margin of safety. The dividend yield of just under 1% is backed by a low payout ratio (13%), but the balance sheet is heavily leveraged (debt‑to‑equity ≈ 268) and free cash flow is minimal, which tempers the upside. Overall, the low beta (0.22) and defensive utilities exposure keep volatility modest despite a 30‑day swing of 21.9%.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance with decreasing volume
  • Bearish MACD histogram signal
  • Strong valuation cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued multiples vs industry peers
  • Revenue growth of ~7% and solid operating cash flow
  • Defensive utility sector with low beta

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term renewable policy support in China
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
  • High leverage and limited free cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.40%
Profit Margin1.59%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE3.38%
ROA1.19%
Debt/Equity268.23
P/B Ratio0.4
Op. Cash FlowHK$11.5B
Free Cash FlowHK$60.2M
Industry P/E20.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI58.9
SupportHK$2.07
ResistanceHK$2.30
MA 20HK$2.19
MA 50HK$2.13
MA 200HK$1.96
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.16

Valuation

GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.99%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.22
Volatility21.91%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.