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200028:SZSEChina National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

HK$13.74

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

China National Accord Medicines trades at a price that is dramatically below its discounted cash‑flow estimate, delivering a valuation that is far cheaper than peers. The stock’s trailing PE of around six is a fraction of the industry average of roughly twenty‑five, and its price‑to‑book sits well under one, underscoring the depth of the discount. Dividend yield approaching three percent and a payout ratio under twenty percent further enhance its appeal, indicating generous and sustainable cash returns. Meanwhile, the company’s balance sheet is strong, with cash exceeding debt and a modest leverage ratio.
Technical indicators are mixed: the MACD has turned mildly bullish, the RSI hovers in the neutral zone, and the price sits just below the identified resistance level, while volume has been tapering. Low beta and modest 30‑day volatility suggest limited price swings, but the decreasing volume trend introduces a slight liquidity concern. Overall, the fundamentals point to a value play with defensive characteristics, while the technicals call for patience before a breakout.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Neutral technical outlook with price near resistance
  • Decreasing volume indicating limited short‑term buying pressure
  • Strong dividend yield offering downside protection

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant discount to DCF fair value
  • Robust cash generation and low leverage
  • Attractive dividend yield supporting total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental undervaluation relative to peers
  • Stable business model in medical distribution
  • Low beta and modest volatility reducing market risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.60%
Profit Margin1.50%
P/E Ratio6.0
ROE5.05%
ROA2.11%
Debt/Equity18.69
P/B Ratio0.3
Op. Cash FlowHK$520.5M
Free Cash FlowHK$2.0B
Industry P/E24.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI53.6
SupportHK$13.35
ResistanceHK$13.83
MA 20HK$13.64
MA 50HK$13.79
MA 200HK$13.70
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair ValueHK$48.94
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.91%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.15
Volatility8.70%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.