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1FRVIA:MILForvia SE Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time

€10.37

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Forvia SE trades at €10.37, just above its 20‑day SMA of €10.27 and 50‑day SMA of €10.07, but still well below the 200‑day SMA of €11.63, indicating a short‑term bounce within a longer‑term downtrend. The RSI sits near the midpoint at 50.8, MACD shows a bearish histogram, and price is flirting with the nearest resistance around €10.95 while support rests near €9.50. On the valuation side, the stock’s price‑to‑sales of 0.09 and price‑to‑book of 1.08 are extremely cheap, and a DCF model pins a fair value near €93, though the company is posting a negative profit margin of -9.8% and carries a high debt‑to‑equity of 276%.
Fundamentally, Forvia is a high‑leverage, loss‑making auto‑parts supplier with flat revenue growth, but it has recently announced a share‑buyback program, suggesting management confidence in the balance sheet. The sector is cyclically sensitive, and the firm’s exposure to clean‑mobility and electronics could provide a medium‑term catalyst, yet the current earnings weakness and sizable debt load keep upside potential uncertain.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance with bearish MACD
  • High volatility (≈37% 30‑day) and modest trading volume
  • Negative earnings and cash flow constraints

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Share‑buyback signals management confidence
  • Potential upside from clean‑mobility and electronics segments
  • Continued debt reduction needed to improve leverage

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Deep valuation discount (price‑to‑sales <0.1, price‑to‑book ~1.1)
  • Structural industry shift toward EVs and advanced interiors
  • Long‑term upside if profitability turns positive and debt is trimmed

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Profit Margin-9.80%
ROE-28.93%
ROA2.40%
Debt/Equity276.35
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow€2.6B
Free Cash Flow€-872600000

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI50.8
Support€9.50
Resistance€10.94
MA 20€10.27
MA 50€10.07
MA 200€11.63
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value€93.08
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.50
Volatility36.81%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.