1FRVIA:MILForvia SE Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time
€9.86
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Forvia SE is trading at €9.86, barely above the identified support level of €9.5 and well below its 20‑day (12.23) and 50‑day (13.38) simple moving averages, indicating a clear down‑trend. The RSI of 25.6 places the stock in oversold territory, while the MACD shows a bearish divergence with a negative histogram, reinforcing short‑term weakness.
Fundamentally, the company posted flat revenue of €21.3 bn, a gross margin of just 14.8 % and a negative profit margin of –9.8 %, resulting in a trailing EPS of –2.33 and a ROE of –28.9 %. Debt is a major concern, with €9.98 bn of liabilities versus €3.92 bn of cash, yielding a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 276 %. Free cash flow is negative (‑€0.87 bn) and the firm does not pay a dividend. Despite these challenges, the DCF‑derived fair value of €100.55 suggests a massive valuation gap, and the market sentiment index is in “Greed” mode (74.38), hinting at potential upside if the turnaround materialises.
Fundamentally, the company posted flat revenue of €21.3 bn, a gross margin of just 14.8 % and a negative profit margin of –9.8 %, resulting in a trailing EPS of –2.33 and a ROE of –28.9 %. Debt is a major concern, with €9.98 bn of liabilities versus €3.92 bn of cash, yielding a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 276 %. Free cash flow is negative (‑€0.87 bn) and the firm does not pay a dividend. Despite these challenges, the DCF‑derived fair value of €100.55 suggests a massive valuation gap, and the market sentiment index is in “Greed” mode (74.38), hinting at potential upside if the turnaround materialises.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above support with limited upside
- Bearish MACD and oversold RSI signal further downside risk
- High debt load and negative earnings constrain near‑term recovery
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Flat revenue and modest operating margins limit growth
- Potential upside from clean‑mobility and electrification segments
- Valuation gap remains wide, but execution risk is high
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value suggests a tenfold upside if turnaround succeeds
- Strategic repositioning after rebranding to Forvia could capture EV market share
- Long‑term industry shift toward electrified vehicles may improve margins
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Profit Margin-9.80%
ROE-28.93%
ROA2.40%
Debt/Equity276.35
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow€2.6B
Free Cash Flow€-872600000
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI25.6
Support€9.50
Resistance€14.86
MA 20€12.23
MA 50€13.38
MA 200€11.42
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index74.38
Valuation
Fair Value€100.55
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta0.56
Volatility53.58%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.