1808:TSEAvic Shougang Biomass Analysis

Run Long Construction posted an eye‑catching 173% revenue growth and solid profitability margins (gross 33.6%, operating 22.8%, net 20.2%), but its balance sheet is strained with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 215% and a payout ratio of 163% that fuels a 7.41% dividend yield well above earnings. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 22.98—comfortably below the industry average of 32.78—while the forward P/E collapses to 14.67, suggesting earnings are expected to improve. However, a discounted cash‑flow model pins a fair value near TWD 16.7, less than half the current price of TWD 31.25, indicating the market may be pricing in overly optimistic growth or ignoring the leverage burden.
Technically, the share sits just above its 20‑day SMA (30.79) and 50‑day SMA (29.89) but remains under the 200‑day SMA (32.75), with a bearish MACD crossover and a neutral RSI of 53.5. Volume is rising, yet the 30‑day volatility spikes at 37% and the beta is virtually zero, implying the price moves largely on company‑specific factors. Coupled with a maximum drawdown of –36% and an “Extreme Greed” market sentiment, the stock appears overvalued and carries elevated risk.