1787:HKEXShandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
HK$40.64
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Shandong Gold Mining (1787.HK) is trading at HK$40.64, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly HK$4.86, implying a substantial premium. The stock carries a trailing P/E of 36.6 and a forward P/E of 18, while the price‑to‑book sits at 5.44, suggesting it is **overvalued** relative to fundamentals. Revenue has surged 27% YoY and operating margins are modest at 12.3%, but the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity of over 100%, raising concerns about financial flexibility.
Technical indicators are mixed: the price is marginally above the 20‑day SMA, the MACD has turned bearish, and the RSI hovers near 50, indicating a neutral stance. Volume is trending up, supporting liquidity, yet volatility is high at over 80% on a 30‑day basis. The dividend yield of 0.87% is modest, but a payout ratio of 41% and solid operating cash flow suggest the payout is **sustainable**. Overall, the stock presents a growth narrative tempered by valuation and leverage risks, warranting a cautious positioning.
Technical indicators are mixed: the price is marginally above the 20‑day SMA, the MACD has turned bearish, and the RSI hovers near 50, indicating a neutral stance. Volume is trending up, supporting liquidity, yet volatility is high at over 80% on a 30‑day basis. The dividend yield of 0.87% is modest, but a payout ratio of 41% and solid operating cash flow suggest the payout is **sustainable**. Overall, the stock presents a growth narrative tempered by valuation and leverage risks, warranting a cautious positioning.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating potential downside pressure
- Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Support level at HK$37.10 providing a near‑term floor
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth (27% YoY) and improving forward EPS
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio limiting financial flexibility
- Modest dividend yield with sustainable payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Gold's status as a long‑term inflation hedge supporting demand
- Elevated leverage and valuation pose downside risk
- Geopolitical and regulatory environment in China adds uncertainty
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth27.20%
Profit Margin4.88%
P/E Ratio36.6
ROE11.02%
ROA4.68%
Debt/Equity104.42
P/B Ratio5.4
Op. Cash FlowHK$18.3B
Free Cash FlowHK$1.9B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI49.5
SupportHK$37.10
ResistanceHK$44.60
MA 20HK$40.47
MA 50HK$40.98
MA 200HK$33.50
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$4.86
Target PriceHK$43.17
Upside/Downside6.23%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.87%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.01
Volatility80.74%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.