1722:TWSEKin Pang Holdings Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time
NT$48.40
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: Taiwan Fertilizer is trading at 48.4 TWD, comfortably above its 20‑day (46.8), 50‑day (46.5) and 200‑day (47.8) moving averages, with a bullish MACD histogram (+0.13) and an RSI of 62.7 indicating momentum but no extreme overbought condition. The stock sits near its recent resistance around 48.8 TWD, with support at 45.15 TWD, and volume is on an increasing trend.
Fundamental backdrop: The company commands a high trailing PE of 50.9 versus a forward PE of 16.6, suggesting earnings are expected to improve sharply. However, a DCF‑derived fair value of ~25.7 TWD is far below the market price, the payout ratio exceeds 200% (dividend yield 4.13% but unsustainable), and leverage is elevated (debt‑to‑equity 3.72). Margins are thin (gross 12.9%, operating –1.3%) and ROE is only 1.8%, while revenue growth remains respectable at 12.6%.
Fundamental backdrop: The company commands a high trailing PE of 50.9 versus a forward PE of 16.6, suggesting earnings are expected to improve sharply. However, a DCF‑derived fair value of ~25.7 TWD is far below the market price, the payout ratio exceeds 200% (dividend yield 4.13% but unsustainable), and leverage is elevated (debt‑to‑equity 3.72). Margins are thin (gross 12.9%, operating –1.3%) and ROE is only 1.8%, while revenue growth remains respectable at 12.6%.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical resistance
- Current valuation still above fair value
- Increasing volume supports short‑term stability
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Forward PE compression to 16.6 suggests earnings upside
- Revenue growth of 12.6% and improving cash generation
- Potential price correction toward DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- High leverage and low ROE limit sustainable growth
- Dividend payout ratio unsustainable for long‑run income investors
- Sector cyclicality and regulatory exposure may cap upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth12.60%
Profit Margin8.12%
P/E Ratio50.9
ROE1.83%
ROA0.27%
Debt/Equity3.72
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash FlowNT$2.4B
Free Cash FlowNT$991.8M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI62.7
SupportNT$45.15
ResistanceNT$48.80
MA 20NT$46.80
MA 50NT$46.48
MA 200NT$47.76
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair ValueNT$25.71
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.13%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.01
Volatility21.77%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.