000596:SZSEAnhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time
CN¥91.94
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Anhui Gujing is trading at CNY 91.94, well below its 20‑day (CNY 102.77) and 50‑day (CNY 105.54) moving averages and far beneath the 200‑day average (CNY 137.53), indicating a strong bearish technical bias. The RSI of 27.6 and a bearish MACD histogram reinforce oversold momentum, while the price sits just above the identified support level of CNY 91.80. Fundamentally, revenue has contracted 18.6% YoY and Q4 2025 earnings fell sharply amid demand headwinds, yet the forward EPS outlook suggests modest earnings recovery. The stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.3%, but a payout ratio above 100% and negative free cash flow raise sustainability concerns. With a DCF fair value of roughly CNY 61, the market appears to be pricing in a premium, rendering the stock overvalued at current levels.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, low RSI, negative MACD)
- Current price near support with limited upside
- Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Potential earnings recovery reflected in forward EPS
- High dividend yield offset by sustainability concerns
- Defensive consumer sector provides some stability
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strong cash position and low beta offering defensive characteristics
- Brand equity in the baijiu market could support a turnaround
- Long‑term valuation may improve if earnings rebound and dividend policy stabilises
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-18.60%
Profit Margin16.50%
P/E Ratio17.2
ROE10.62%
ROA5.84%
Debt/Equity2.18
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowCN¥2.0B
Free Cash FlowCN¥-38912004
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI27.6
SupportCN¥91.80
ResistanceCN¥111.70
MA 20CN¥102.77
MA 50CN¥105.54
MA 200CN¥137.53
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.5
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥61.41
Target PriceCN¥135.19
Upside/Downside47.04%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield6.32%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.25
Volatility31.92%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.